Complexity And Security: An Emerging Link

Jürgen Scheffran, Research Scientist, Arms Control, Disarmament, International Security, UIUC

After the end of the bipolar Cold War the international security landscape has become increasingly complex. The system of nation states has considerably changed by opposing trends of state formation and breakup. Forces of globalization put enormous pressure on the security of citizens and states, challenging their identity and survival. A variety of stress factors, such as poverty, underdevelopment, environmental destruction and terrorism, undermine the stability of social structures and contribute to conflict, possibly triggering (civil) war. Technical developments contribute to complexity, insecurity and instability. Complexity theory provides a methodological framework to study the dynamic interaction among multiple agents across micro and macro levels. An agent-based model is presented to analyze conflict and cooperation in international security, assessing the role of networks, coalition formation and institutions for conflict resolution. Within this framework security issues are discussed, including the offense-defense interaction, natural resource competition, energy security and climate change.

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