Chaos In Models Of Arms Races And War

Alvin Saperstein, Professor, Department of Physics and Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, Wayne State University

Verbal modeling is the usual major prerequisite for any policy making, whether by individuals or by nations. But why mathematical modeling of international arms races? It provides and alternative approach to understanding and confirming the answers to questions such as:

i. Are multipolar international systems more or less stable than bipolar international systems?

ii. .Are democracies more or less prone to war than oligarchic nations?

iii. In an anarchic system, is the independent seeking of security via arms procurement more or less stable than the collective procurement of arms via balance-of-power politics.

To create answers to such question, we relate the political science concept of “crisis instability” to the mathematical concept of “chaos” in non-linear recursive models of international interactions. The model parameters represent national-societal characteristics that vary on a much longer time scale than do the transitions from peace to war. (Just as national capabilities change at a much slower rate than do national intentions.) In each case, the answer provided by mathematical stability analysis is “less”, an answer which agrees with that obtained by most verbal analyses.

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